How El Nino probabilities are calculated
Summary:
ReferenceTwo different probabilities, but both methods use temperatures and winds. Noaa is using their false splotch to get higher odds.I followed the ocean currents during the last two El Ninos and the mechanism was obvious. Unfortunately, everybody else sees it differently. I give it a zero chance.ps. really, really tried with nooa to resolve the apparent artifact in the temp anomaly map,
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