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Geological Hazards with Century-Millenia Recurrence Intervals: Are we doing enough about low-probability high-consequence events?

 


   As a member of the Resilient America Roundtable of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, I gave a presentation in February 2019 about low-probability events with high-consequences should they occur.  Here I summarize that presentation, giving examples of such events and suggestions for research, educational, and organizational challenges. Examples that we most commonly think of when considering "rare" events are big hydrologic floods, floods from dam failures, volcanic eruptions and ash clouds, earthquakes and earthquake-induced tsunamis, landslides, and wildfires. Less frequently considered are solar eruptions with the ejection of coronal material (CMEs), meteorite impacts and combination events (e.g., and earthquake plus a tsunami in the midst of a pandemic. 

Natural floods (Mississippi River): For reference, during the recent "catastrophic" flood of the Mississipi River in 2008 that severely damaged Cedar Rapids (Iowa), the discharge at St. Louis was about 700,000 cfs. In the Great Flood of 1993 it was 1,030,000 cfs and in 1844 it was 1,300,000 cfs.  

Natural floods (Colorado River, Grand Canyon), see attached graphic: The catastrophic flood on the Colorado River in 1983 that nearly took out Glen Canyon Dam and caused serious environmental and geomorphic changes for nearly 300 miles, had a discharge of ~100,000 cfs. For comparison, the discharge of the 1884 flood was about 300,000 cfs and a flood in about 550AD had a discharge of ~500,000 cfs.

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